Prediction is updated every 5 minutes.
Simulations are based on the latest state prediction markets from Polymarket.
- 20,000 elections are simulated by drawing multivariate Gaussians centered at log-odds of betting markets.
- Swing states are assumed to correlate more with each other than with solid states. For example, if Pennsylvania goes blue, it's more likely that Michigan will go blue. But if California goes blue, it's not more likely that Michigan will go blue.
- Source code is available here: lambda_function.py.
- In case the election is a real nail-biter for you, consider these.